The Multilevel Approach to Repeated Measures for Complete and Incomplete Data

Repeated measurements often are analyzed by multivariate analysis of variance (MANOVA). An alternative approach is provided by multilevel analysis, also called the hierarchical linear model (HLM), which makes use of random coefficient models. This paper is a tutorial which indicates that the HLM can be specified in many different ways, corresponding to different sets of assumptions about the covariance matrix of the repeated measurements. The possible assumptions range from the very restrictive compound symmetry model to the unrestricted multivariate model. Thus, the HLM can be used to steer a useful middle road between the two traditional methods for analyzing repeated measurements. Another important advantage of the multilevel approach to analyzing repeated measures is the fact that it can be easily used also if the data are incomplete. Thus it provides a way to achieve a fully multivariate analysis of repeated measures with incomplete data. This revised version was published online in June 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

A comparative site evaluation study for relocating Japanese government agencies out of Tokyo

As a national project of Japan, plans for the relocation of several government agencies out of Tokyo have been ongoing. This paper is concerned with the problem of site selection for this project. The National Land Agency, the agency responsible for this project, has declared that the process of site selection should be rational, open to the public and easily understandable. In an effort to meet these requirements, we propose a consensus-making method for reaching a group decision, based on a combination of the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and the Assurance Region model of data envelopment analysis (DEA). Several strategic uses of these methodologies, e.g., Delphi procedures, are also discussed. Based on these analyses, the “Wise Men” Committee for deciding the best site has chosen two from among ten contenders, one from the North-East and the other from the Central part of Japan, as candidates for the best relocation site. We could not discriminate between the two with respect to the multiple criteria chosen for evaluating sites. The Committee recommended the two sites to the Prime Minister at the end of December 1999. The Prime Minister reported this conclusion to the Diet. This topic is currently the focus of political discussions in the Diet. In this report, the authors summarize the decision-making processes that the Wise Men Committee followed, putting emphasis on the methodological aspects.     

Forecasting residential burglary

Following the work of Dhiri et al. [Modelling and predicting property crime trends. Home Office Research Study 198 (1999). London: HMSO] at the Home Office predicting recorded burglary and theft for England and Wales to the year 2001, econometric and time series models were constructed for predicting recorded residential burglary to the same date. A comparison between the Home Office econometric predictions and the less alarming econometric predictions made in this paper identified the differences as stemming from the particular set of variables used in the models. However, the Home Office and one of our econometric models adopted an error correction form which appeared to be the main reason why these models predicted increases in burglary. To identify the role of error correction in these models, time series models were built for the purpose of comparison, all of which predicted substantially lower numbers of residential burglaries. The years 1998–2001 appeared to offer an opportunity to test the utility of error correction models in the analysis of criminal behaviour. Subsequent to the forecasting exercise carried out in 1999, recorded outcomes have materialised, which point to the superiority of time series models compared to error correction models for the short-run forecasting of property crime. This result calls into question the concept of a long-run equilibrium relationship for crime.     

IP电话系统中SNMP代理的实现

结合对简单网络管理协议（SNMP）的研究，分析了Agent 网管代理开发包，并介绍了利用Agnet 实现IP电话系统中SNMP代理的过程。     

中国和新加坡产业内贸易与规模经济关系的协整分析

中国和新加坡产业内贸易与规模经济存在着一种长期的均衡关系,新加坡生产企业的规模经济对产业内贸易的推动作用大于中国,中国和新加坡生产企业的规模经济与产业内贸易存在单向因果关系,即规模经济促进产业内贸易.     

中国进口与经济增长关系的区域差异分析

利用面板数据对中国东、中、西部的进口额和GDP增长关系进行的实证研究。在短期内，GDP增长对进口额影响最小是中部地区，在长期，西部GDP增长对进口额影响最大。中国经济增长对拉动世界经济增长起了十分重要的作用，中国经济增长减速也会影响全球经济。     

试论我国证券投资基金稳定市场的功能

本文采用博弈分析方法 ,通过博弈模型 ,对虚假会计信息产生的条件、机制和影响因素等作了探讨。     

Politico-economic consequences of rising wage inequality

This paper uses a dynamic political economy model to evaluate whether the observed rise in wage inequality and decrease in median to mean wages can explain some portion of the relative increase in transfers to low earnings quintiles and relative increase in effective tax rates for high earnings quintiles in the U.S. over the past several decades. Specifically, we assume that households have uninsurable idiosyncratic labor efficiency shocks and consider policy choices by a median voter which are required to be consistent with a sequential equilibrium. We choose the transition matrix to match observed mobility in wages between 1978 and 1979 in the panel study of income dynamics (PSID) data set and then evaluate the response of social insurance policies to a new transition matrix that matches the observed mobility in wages between 1995 and 1996 and is consistent with the rise in wage inequality and the decrease in median to mean wages between 1979 and 1996. We deal with the problem that policy outcomes affect the evolution of the wealth distribution (and hence prices) by approximating the distribution by a small set of moments. We contrast these numbers with those from a sequential utilitarian mechanism, as well as mechanisms with commitment.     

Environmental Valuation with Imperfect Information The Case of the Random Utility Model

This paper considers welfare analysis with therandom utility model (RUM) when perceptions ofenvironmental quality differ from objectivemeasures of environmental quality. Environmental quality is assumed to be anexperience good, so that while perceptions ofquality determine choices, ex postutility is determined by objective quality. Given this assumption, I derive a measure ofthe welfare impact of changes in environmentalquality, and I show how this new welfaremeasure differs from the traditional welfaremeasure developed by Hanemann (1982). This newwelfare measure provides an approach tomeasuring the value of information aboutenvironmental quality within the framework ofthe random utility model.     

集成的零售配送区域划分和运输计划模型研究

零售配送是直接面向广大消费者具有配送对象不断变化特点的配送服务。集成的零售配送区域划分和运输计划模型融合了零售配送生成成本最小路径矩阵、配送区域划分、生成运输计划的全过程。它以GIS道路网数据为基础。以时间为成本，考虑时间窗口约束、道路双向交通、商品混运和运输工具重复调度等因素，自动地生成以线路为基础的运输计划，为配送企业提供了自动化决策的方法。